What Trump predicts is treated as unlikely by the mainstream press. But is it?
Donald Trump said in an interview that economic conditions are so perilous that the country is headed for a “very massive recession” and that “it’s a terrible time right now” to invest in the stock market, embracing a distinctly gloomy view of the economy that counters mainstream economic forecasts.
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“I know the Wall Street people probably better than anybody knows them,” said Trump, who has misfired on such predictions in the past. “I don’t need them.”
Notice that the establishment press and establishment economists pretend that these statements by Donald Trump are not plausible. Here’s a typical news report:
Likewise, the Washington Post comments:
Trump’s assertion does not match data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Its analysis of joblessness beyond the unemployed — such as “marginally attached” workers and those who have dropped out of the labor force — was under 10 percent nationally last month.
Trump’s view also runs counter to that of most economists, whose rough consensus is that the U.S. economy has about a 20 percent chance of slipping into recession this year largely because growth remains weak across the world, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of economists in March.
Blah, blah, blah. The only thing that might make Donald Trump’s prediction inaccurate is the likelihood that the recession has already begun. Consider this data on manufacturing factory orders for more recent evidence.
Remember the year before that recession hit in 2008? Virtually everyone (including every politician and anyone else who received a government paycheck) assured us that there was nothing but good times ahead. Look at all the people who piled on Peter Schiff back in 2006 and 2007:
Do these kinds of people deserve your trust?
Below is a video of Bob Woodward and Robert Costa talking about their interview with Trump. Watch it and see how amazed they are. I’ll translate one of the major points that Woodward and Costa are really trying to make: “We can’t believe that a candidate doesn’t know he’s supposed to lie to the American people about the economy.”
I often get tired of Donald Trump’s supporters saying that “he says what he thinks,” because often it just seems that he lacks discretion. Sometimes, when he says different things, it doesn’t seem like he thinks much at all.
But in this case, as in the South Carolina debate, Donald Trump is amazing. I wish he was a conservative but I can’t help but love his refusal to spout the usual lies that politicians always tell. There’s still lots of nonsense too—like Trump’s promise to pay the national debt. But I can’t deny that Trump is breaking with the political establishment that has ruled this country for over a century.