If you go by the national polls, things aren’t looking promising for the Donald. A few polls have the Republican nominee down by 12 to 14 points. But in some key swing states, he seems to be doing fairly well, even taking the lead in some. And those local polls – especially in battleground states – are more important than the national polls.
If he can win the key swing states, that could generate the momentum he needs to sweep the rest of the country.
No matter which side people are on, they’re always going to think something is “rigged.” If Trump is down in the polls, his supporters will argue that the pollsters are rigging the question or messing with the sampling. If Trump is up, Hillary’s supporters will say the pollsters were obviously biased against Hillary and declare that the poll is rigged.
One political science professor who’s correctly predicted the winners of the last five presidential elections doesn’t go by the polls. His name is Helmut Norpoth, and he works at Stony Brook University in New York.
Using a statistical model based on previous election results, he is predicting that Mr Trump will triumph next month. Professor Norpoth told i: “My forecast says that he’s going to win 52.5 per cent of the two-party vote, that would give Hillary 47.5 per cent. I attach something like 87 per cent certainty that he’s going to win.”
Professor Norpoth admits that his prediction is not shared by many pollsters, with most showing Ms Clinton just ahead of Mr Trump – one by as many as 12 points. But he added: “My forecast is not poll-driven – I don’t live by the polls so I don’t die by the polls.”
It is to Mr Trump’s advantage that he represents a party which has been out of power for almost a decade, Professor Norpoth argues: “It’s very difficult for a party that’s been in the White House for two terms to get a third term, it’s not very common.” He added: “Obama openly won by about half the margin in 2012 compared to 2008 so that shows that the trajectory of the vote for the Democrats is down.”
Ms Clinton’s confidence could result in defeat, he claims. “I think that’s been a problem all along. She was complacent when she ran against Obama in 2008 and lost and I think she believes too much of the hype that she’s ahead in the polls.”
I think that most people – if not everyone – realize that this presidential election has been unlike any other in decades, considering Donald Trump’s rise. Lots of anti-establishment people have run for president, but none have made it as far as Donald Trump has. Maybe the old rules of predicting vote outcomes don’t apply this time around.