According to the Primary Model, which has projected 5 out of 5 correct forecasts of election outcomes the Certainty of Donald Trump Becoming America’s next president is 52. percent. The Primary Model also predicts the November election to favor the Republican Party.
Helmut Norpoth writes for the PrimaryModel.com that the likelihood of Trump winning is 87 percent based on a “statistical model that relies on presidential primaries [going back to 1912] and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.”
How a candidate fares in the early primaries is key to determining electoral victory for that election. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, but Clinton and Sanders split the Democratic primaries in the same states.
If paired with Hillary Clinton, the Republican primary winner, Donald Trump, “is predicted to defeat Hillary Clinton by 52.5% to 47.5% of the two-party vote.” If paired with Sanders, Trump would win by 57.7% to 42.3%.
Trending: Science is Settled
For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL, with slight modifications, has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996. In recent elections the forecast has been issued as early as January of the election year.
As a rule, the candidate with the stronger primary performance wins against the candidate with the weaker primary performance. For elections from 1912 to 2012 the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner, albeit retroactively, every time except in 1960.
The certainty of Hillary Clinton defeating Rubio is 86 percent. Clinton would get 52.4% and Rubio 47.6% of the two party vote. The PrimaryModel indicates that Cruz “and any other candidate (except Trump) would fare the same way against Clinton.”