There is an effort to deny Trump at the convention by un-bounding delegates.
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There is an effort to unbound the delegates and deny Trump. It is said that rif the delegates are unbound at the Cleveland convention, they will choose either Cruz or someone else. Erick Erickson was one of the first to call for such a plan.
Donald Trump is going to continue to provide them ever more reason to do so between now and then, and the delegates would be wise to recognize it.
The rules committee has the power to unbound delegates to deny Trump. Do they have the will?
There really isn’t a consensus third party candidate for any of the anti-Trump forces to unite behind. There’s a focus to deny him at the convention. The Libertarian candidates running right now lack credibility for many conservatives. Most of the serious movement libertarians don’t even like their own candidates. There’s too many splintered and factions within the Republican party and conservative movement. They are scrambling to find a third party candidate. Mitt Romney and Bill Kristol working behind the scenes to choose a third party moderate candidate doesn’t appeal to conservatives. Grassroots conservatives can’t seem to find their own third party candidate willing to step into the ring.
There are a couple of events and signs that anti-Trump forces are counting on in order for there to be enough momentum to push for un-bounding delegates at the convention.
The current negative news cycle against Trump
Ever since Ted Cruz left the race the media has gone on the attack against Trump. The media is putting front and center the Trump University lawsuit. Trump‘s ties to pedophile Jeffrey Epstein and the rape allegations and many other reports surrounding Trump are also front and center. If there’s enough attention surrounding these reports the anti-Trump forces are hoping it pushes the rules committee to vote to unbound the delegates.
Trump’s saving grace might be his ability to push back the negative news cycle against Clinton. The media that gave Trump love and attention in the primaries will be turning against him now that he’s the likely nominee. The media will be working hard to protect Hillary Clinton. The challenge for Trump will be to rise above the media to push back on Clinton.
The negative polling surrounding Trump
If delegates have the perception that Trump is guaranteed to lose in November, the pressure to unbound delegates will grow. Polling right now is mixed. Trump is tied in a couple of national polls with Hillary and tied in some swing states. There are enough other polls out there right now where Hillary is up by double digits in many key battleground states and threatens Trump in safe Republican states.
Right now according to Predictwise Hillary has a 70 percent chance of winning the nomination. If Trump continues to rise in polls, you will see Predictwise change their tune obviously. There is a consensus among pundits conservative and liberal that Trump loses to Hillary. Redstate who’s been very anti-Trump wrote a surprising article about Trump’s chances. Red State’s article pointed out a recent Gravis poll with strong Hispanic support for Trump and weak support for Clinton among African Americans. Hillary is barely breaking 80 percent with blacks.
If true, this would be the weakest level of support by blacks for a Democrat presidential candidate in modern political history. John Kerry received over 88%. Usually a Democrat receives in excess of 90% of the black vote. Even Al Gore did.
Regardless of the top line of the poll, if these latter two points are true, or even close to being true, then Donald Trump will win.
Redstate is as anti-Trump as you can possibly get and they usually will point out and underscore polls that they believe are unreliable and are skeptical on Trump’s chances. The fact that they are honest about this poll tells you that we are a long way from consensus on Trump’s chances.
If Trump can’t successfully prove or at least give the perception that he’s beating Hillary between now and convention, we will see more and more momentum to push for un-bounding delegates.
The way Trump is handling issues and his plan to face Hillary.
Barack Obama’s threat to punish public schools for not providing transgendered bathrooms was a test to see how Trump would react. It would determine going forward how fierce the opposition would be from the right against the Rainbow Jihad. Trump initially was for transgendered bathrooms on the today show to later back tracking those statements and saying it’s a state’s issue. The anti-Trump forces are not happy with the answer and will hope that his response will push delegates to deny Trump.
The latest reports of how Trump believes that building the wall and other issues are only suggestions is also helping build the case to deny Trump for those who oppose him.
Trump’s discussions about raising taxes has also fueled the fire to deny him. The more Trump is perceived on changing positions and backing down from his positions, the more momentum you will see to deny him delegates.
While there’s a push to deny Trump from getting the nomination, for that to actually happen is uncertain based on the makeup of the delegates.
The majority of the delegates are Cruz delegates. There is no evidence that Cruz is leading the effort to deny Trump the nomination. If Cruz is leading this effort, there are no media reports to support it. To the contrary, it seems Cruz is more focused on returning to fight in the Senate and work on his re-election campaign. The delegates I have met and know at least in Georgia, are big believers in the process and supporting the eventual nominee. I really don’t know how far delegates are willing to fight for a chance at denying Trump the nomination. You also see conservative standard bearers that have gotten behind Trump like Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry. The more high-profile conservatives with influence especially former governors, will it make it more challenging for delegates to buck the system.