Examining the Fundamental Premise for Global Warming

Previously, the opening section of this series of articles established the objectives including a clear statement of the Global Warming / Man-Made Climate Change theory which can be now be analyzed based on basic and established scientific facts – Analysis which exposes fundamental weaknesses that underlie their theory and basic assumptions.

Examining the Fundamental Premise for Global Warming

Essentially, the fundamental premise and primary “Pillars” underlying the Anthropocentric Climate Change / Global Warming Theory is that Man’s use of fossil fuels produces increased Carbon Dioxide (CO2) as a Greenhouse Gas in huge concentrations that has already caused an increasing global-warming imbalance in the natural Greenhouse Effect with CO2 (presently at 400 ppm, parts-per-million) that warms our atmosphere and planet which will cause catastrophic global warming once the Earth’s atmosphere reaches 600 ppm before the end of this 21st Century.

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1The following points present fundamental facts related to these claims about the origins and causes of ‘Climate Change’ which can be analyzed and compared against actual scientific facts that are presented in outline format below along with reasonable conclusions – Making it easier for you to understand and confirm them by yourself.

  • Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) comprise only 1% of the Earth’s atmosphere (Oxygen 21%, Nitrogen 78%). As such, Greenhouse Gas concentrations represents about 10,000 ppm (i.e., 1% x 1,000,000 parts = 10,000 ppm).
    • Carbon Dioxide (CO2) current level is 400 ppm (i.e., parts-per-million) which has increased from 183 ppm in early-18th century to 400 ppm over the last 150 years.
      • However, CO2 is scientifically considered a TRACE GAS at 0.04% (i.e., 400 ppm) of the Earth’s atmosphere [Look it up in any authentic scientific reference, including Wikipedia].
      • 95% of atmospheric CO2 is caused Naturally by volcanic emissions and evaporation due to sunlight on the seas (0.038% of the atmosphere).
      • 2Only 5% of atmospheric CO2 (0.002% of the atmosphere) is due to Man and his use of Fossil Fuels.
        • Two (2) one-thousandths of a percent is an Extremely Tiny Trace Amount of CO2 to blame Man & Fossil Fuels for creating disastrous changes in weather, much less long-term disastrous Climate trends.
      • Therefore, the percentage of the combined Natural and Man-caused CO2 that are GHGs:
      • Currently, CO2 at 400 ppm is 4% of all GHGs (400 ppm / 10,000 ppm = 0.04 x 100 = 4%)
      • Current Man-Made CO2 concentration is 5% x 400 ppm = 20 ppm or
        20 ppm / 10,000 ppm = 0.2% of all GHGs
      • GWA Dire Claims for CO2 at 600 ppm is 6% of all GHGs (600 ppm / 10,000 ppm = 0.06 x 100 = 6%)
      • GWA Dire Claims for CO2 concentrations is 5% x 600 ppm = 30 ppm or
        30 ppm / 10,000 ppm = 0.3% of all GHGs

Observation: Trace concentrations of natural Carbon Dioxide and extremely trace concentrations produced by Man’s use of fossil fuels puts the GWA Claims on very shaky ground.

  • 3Water Vapor (H2O) comprises 95% and at times even more of the Greenhouse Gases and its molecular Greenhouse Effect is comparable to Carbon Dioxide (CO2) – Most people, including many GWA, are surprised!
  • Both Water Vapor and Carbon Dioxide gas molecules become energized by light in the Infrared (IR) spectrum at about 10 miles up in the atmosphere deflecting light and heat up into our Stratosphere or back down into the Earth’s Troposphere using the reflected light from the Earth’s surface to provide the heat that keeps the Earth temperatures pleasantly habitable (i.e., not inhospitably cold).
  • The remaining GHGs, such as Methane (CH4) which has a higher Greenhouse Effect, are in such insignificant quantities that they do not have a significant impact on the Greenhouse Effect.
  • Since Water Vapor (H2O) has a comparable Greenhouse Effect to Carbon Dioxide (CO2), its overwhelming larger concentrations indicate that: Water Vapor is the major factor in the Earth’s warming under the Greenhouse Effect, not Carbon Dioxide (i.e., Water Vapor at 9,500 ppm vs. CO2 at 400 ppm).
  • Water Vapor (H2O) represents 95% of the total GHGs at 10,000 ppm, thus Water Vapor (H2O) concentration is around 9,500 ppm (i.e., 95% x 10,000 ppm = 9,500 ppm).

Observation: Water Vapor at 9,500 ppm compared with Trace amounts of Carbon Dioxide (Natural & Man-Made) at 400 ppm, Water Vapor is the Greenhouse Gas that is overwhelmingly the primary source of warming produced by the Greenhouse Effect.

  • Good News! Water Vapor (H2O is NOT PRODUCED BY MAN or FOSSIL FUELS!
  • Concerns over Trace Concentrations of CO2 (Natural & Man-made) appear to be highly exaggerated, yet the GWA have chosen to ignore and suppress information regarding the main component of greenhouse gases.
  • Perhaps the truth about Water Vapor is not scary enough and is not related to Man’s use of fossil fuels, so the GWA wish to ignore and suppress this “Inconvenient Truth” – Regardless of the facts.
  • Temperature and Carbon Dioxide are related – But Not in the Way the GWA assumes.
    • The GWA assumptions assert that as atmospheric CO2 concentrations:
      • Increase – Atmospheric Temperatures Rise, and
      • Decrease – CO2 returns to the seas producing increased carbonic acidity.
    • 4However, the actual science facts are that the exact Opposite is True since most of the Earth’s Carbon Dioxide (as well as its water vapor) begin in the seas and occur naturally from evaporation by the Sun’s energy and volcanic emissions from above and below the seas:
      • CO2 rise LAGS Temperature Rise – Sun-based Temperature Rise Creates CO2 & Water Vapor Rise!
    • The Earth’s seas contain carbonic acid that is conveyed into the atmosphere as CO2 by evaporation and gradually returns CO2 to the seas as the sun-caused temperatures decrease!
  • CO2 is Not a PollutantIt is Essential to ALL Life on Earth!
    • Grammar-School Kids know that CO2, Water (H2O) and Sunlight are inputs to the Photosynthesis process used by Plants to create Glucose (C6H12O6) to nourish the plant and emit Oxygen (O2) which all Humans and Animals must breathe to survive completing a mutual life-support cycle.
  • All Humans, as well as Animals, exhale about 4% CO2 with every breath. Atmospheric CO2 has some effect on Local Weather, but Not on long-term Climate Change!
  • Venus, with an atmosphere that is 96% CO2 and 867o F surface temperatures, is often cited by the GWA as the Earth’s future fate due to Man & Fossil Fuel usage – However, our 4-year Magellan space probe and radar mapping ending in 1994 proved that continuous and violent Volcanic Emissions of CO2 fully determined its dense and toxic atmosphere as well as its volcanic-wasteland surface.


  • Carbon is NOT our Enemy, despite GWA claims of buildups which need to be sequestered and the Industrialized Nations should pay ‘Carbon Credit Taxes’ to the UN to redistribute their wealth.
    • Carbon (C ) is the 4th most-common element in the entire Universe and the 15th most-common element in our earth’s crust.
    • All living People, Animals and Plants are Carbon-based structures! Without Carbon, Life as we know it could not exist and have flourished on Earth. Carbon is a good thing! The Trace amounts of CO2 in our atmosphere serves us and plants well.
    • 6Carbon (C ) is the most-flexible element that recombines to form a vast number of useful compounds with almost 10-Million compounds described to date that is still a fraction of possible future compounds such as: soft pencil leads, hard diamonds, lightweight composite aircraft parts, lubricants, Nanotubes, Buckminster Fullerene “Buckeyballs”, even advanced tennis racquets (e.g., Graphene), …, etc.

Conclusions – Part 1

So far in this series, the science-based facts presented here are widely published and available for you to verify for yourself and they have already provided you with a strong basis for skepticism and underscore the need for open, non-political, and honest scientific discussion of this subject instead of misleading assertions of what might happen or logical fallacies such as “Today was the Hottest Day in Phoenix”, “There is a Drought in California”, “Shark Attacks have increased” – It must be due to “Global Warming”. Al Gore is full of them.

Such assertions are made as if the underlying assumption is true and is actually relevant – More Unscientific Spin—Don’t fall for it!

The more you investigate the subject of “Climate Change”, the more you find that the scientists don’t really know and are not in agreement – Remember “Consensus is not Scientific Proof”; Theories always need to be open to scientific discussion and new findings – Theories have always been either adapted or discarded when honest progress is made once true science prevails and is not distorted by politics!


In “Part 2: If Not Man and Carbon Dioxide, What is the Primary Driver of Climate Change?” of this series, you will be exposed to the extremely important role our Sun plays in our Earth’s climate for the last 4.5 Billion years and is continuing today.

Come back tomorrow for Part 3 in the series What is Driving Climate Change?

Byron Claghorn

Byron Claghorn is an experienced Business Analyst, Project Manager and Technical Writer. With a keen interest in science, the Global Warming and Man-Made Climate Change claims did not ‘Ring True’, so he has focused much time and effort in its research and reporting in this series of articles: “Man-Made Climate Change? – The Science on the Other Side of the Coin”. As a result of trying to ‘Connect the Dots’ in this highly politicized subject of “Climate Change”, this series will both inform as well as provide an example of how you can verify these facts, plus empower you to continue to question and ‘Connect your own Dots’ on this subject.

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