Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination depend on this happening, according to Fox News.
Fox News interviewed Kyle Kondik on Donald Trump’s chances of winning the necessary 1,237 delegates to automatically get the Republican nomination at the convention. I found the interview helpful but somewhat odd.
The clip is informative but notice the assumption that we the viewers are expected to take for granted. I don’t think it is ever explicitly stated but it seems like Trump must get a massive delegate count because, if he has merely 1,236 delegates, the RNC establishment is going to veto his candidacy. It’s that simple.
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Trump’s path to victory then involves the requirement that he defeat the Republican establishment.
Does this seem right? Basically, we have an oligarchy that has tremendous power to veto the popular front runner. They even admit it.
If Jeb Bush had managed to get to the convention with a bare majority of delegates, is there any doubt that he would be given the nomination? And those who opposed Bush would be told that his winning a bare majority was proof he should be the nominee. It doesn’t work that way for candidates the oligarchy doesn’t like. Donald Trump’s chances plummet if he gets to the convention and the establishment gets to decide.
I favor Ted Cruz but in this interview it looks like his only path to winning is to prevent Trump from getting enough delegates, coming in second, and hoping a combination of gratitude for hampering Trump and embarrassment on disenfranchising even more voters will lead the RNC to nominate him.
Of course, there is an element of democracy still in play in this sordid process. Trump still faces a lot of opposition not only from the establishment but also from Republican voters, especially conservatives or Constitutionalists. An argument could be made that the RNC is respecting these votes.
But it still seems really hard to believe that the RNC should choose a much less popular candidate. Frankly, it means the establishment has decided Hillary should be president because they will alienate much of their base. Perhaps Trump is also incapable of beating Hillary (especially when many Republicans will support her against Trump). But at least we will lose with our most popular candidate rather than having the rich choose someone over against the wishes of a majority.