poll

Will the Press and the Pollsters Be Eating Crow Come Nov 8th?

Needless to say, this is the Sixty-Four-thousand-dollar question.  Just about every poll predicts Hillary Clinton will win and Donald Trump will lose.  To be quite honest, I have no idea.

I know the Clinton Media, Clinton News Network (CNN), American Broadcasters for Clinton (ABC), the Clinton Broadcast Station (CBS), and the National Broadcasters for Clinton (NBC) are all in the tank for Hillary.

But still, there is that ever small voice in the back of my mind, “what if they have deceived themselves with their skewed polls?”

Recently, an old friend, asked me if I have ever seen the personal polls folks conduct on their social media page?

The post will read something like this,

“WHO ARE YOU VOTING FOR? Ok – I have seen several of these POLL POSTS lately – now I want to do one as well. Please do not make any comments other than the name of who you support/are voting for. Obviously, if you don’t want anyone to know, then just move on…”

I hadn’t paid attention to these so-called polls, due to the fact there is no scientific basis for the results and knowing people have a tendency to group together with like-minded people. Like my mama uses to say, “birds of a feather flock together.” And they may not even be conscious of the fact. So I usually chalk the results of these types of “polls” as “confirmation bias.”

But a close friend followed a few of these polls and noticed that there was a post just for residents of the state of Florida on which a mutual friend shared his view.

He explained that he didn’t have any connection with anyone else who expressed their view other than this one friend and that the unscientific poll was overflowing with Trump voters — like 50 to 1.

Still not proof of a landslide for Trump, or even a win, but it did get me thinking.  Are the polls missing out on the anger and rage of voters this election cycle?  Are they ignoring the silent majority?

And then it happened.  Now follow me carefully on this!  I have a secondary FaceBook page that has nothing to do with politics.  The focus of my secondary page is the history or organized crime.

A woman, whom I have never met, but was interested in the focus of that page sent me a friend request roughly 18 months ago. I never asked her political leanings, and, as far as I could tell, she never expressed them.  I also need to explain that she and I have no mutual friends.

A few nights ago she posted on her home page, which showed up in my news feed, that she was supporting Hillary.  There were 211 comments underneath her endorsement, and I wanted to see what her friends thought, so I read every comment.

72% of her friends encouraged her to rethink her decision and vote for Trump.  Another 22% stated that there was no one running for whom they could vote.  And less than 3% applauded her decision stating that they too were voting for Hillary.

If birds of a feather flock together, and she is a Hillary supporter, then why these disproportionate numbers? You would think she would have an uneven balance of Hilly supporters as her friends.

So again I ask, is this telling?  Is there a silent majority out there of whom the press has ignored?  Maybe.

But as a friend of mine is fond of saying, and perhaps this is truer for the so-called scientific polls, “figures never lie, but liars figure!”

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Jerry Johnson

Jerry Johnson was the former Director of the Apologetics Group and President of Nicene Council. He was the senior writer/researcher for numerous documentaries including the best-selling Amazing Grace: The History & Theology of Calvinism. In the 1990s he served as Executive Director of the Christian Coalition of Hillsborough County Florida. He currently holds an M.A. in Christian Studies and a M. Phil. in Christian Apologetics. He lives with his wife of nearly 30 years and has four children and four grandchildren.

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