When Scientists became Fortune Tellers

World Population Predictions per World Health Organization versus The Verhulst Equation

 

We know not when it began, but there has long been a “pan-science” popular with Ph.D.s in search of fame and wealth plus the blushing respect of 20 year drop-dead cute college coeds.

Increasing numbers of Professors find ways to announce, “We’re all gonna die!” blaming “fossil fuels,” “greenhouse gases” and “bovine flatulence.”  None of these claimed threats is real, and we have proved it in demonstration experiments for a decade only to be spat upon, threatened and castigated by believers.

I was recently invited by my old college to give a talk on educational technology.  I accepted and returned my paper, “CO2 Is Innocent” seen at http://ScienceFrauds.blogspot.com with a note saying, “This is what I would like to do, as it is important.”  Three weeks later a one page note informed me the invitation was withdrawn due to “scheduling problems.”

In addition to “Climate Change,” the question of population growth has been one of the well-exploited tools of panic pushers.  They say “a million species die every year,” and we are told it is our fault for using carbon-based fuels.  No studies proving that concept have been published, and the work of George Woodwell, in the January 1978 issue of Scientific American, “The Carbon Question,” dashed that idea.

In 1968 Dr. Paul Erlich published, “The Population Bomb,” saying in 20 years we would have too many people, run out of food and turn to cannibalism!  Ironically, in that same decade, the world growth trend peaked.  What Dr. Erlich did not realize is that a man who had lived 200 years ago had found how populations really evolve and that we were behaving like all living things that have sexual reproduction. We come and we go.  Every species is an experiment.

In the early 19th century a Belgian math and science teacher had the responsibility of caring for protista, one-celled animal, cultures. Pierre Antoine Verhhulst made the observation that no matter what he did, starting with a few, they grew to thousands of tiny animals swimming in the culture, then peak, decline and die!  He could take a few from a culture and start another and the same thing would happen every time!

He studied the phenomenon quantitatively by stirring the culture vigorously, taking a drop and counting the number of organisms in a single drop, 1/20 milliliter, and relating that to the full liter culture which was 20,000 times the volume of the drop.  From this he derived a mathematical expression we will not outline here, but it is in Wikipedia and has been adapted to many disciplines ranging from nature studies to crowd dynamics, and battlefield simulations used by war Generals.  One such application enabled General George S. Patten to estimate the ammunition reserves of Wehrmacht forces he was facing. Such is the art of war and the equation has been “rediscovered” by a dozen scientists and mathematicians with the most recent called “The Logistics Equation.”

In the chart above, we see the perfect example of Nostrodomics panic predictions in the WHO projection of the human population from 1960 to 2250, showing we will have over 100 billion people on Earth unless the UN spends a lot of American money for condoms, IUDs, birth control pills, vasectomies, payoffs to despots and gifts to the Clinton Foundation to prevent our collapse to cannibalism!

Meanwhile, back at the data, in the right side we see that the population began a decline in the 60’s that was only interrupted by growth in 2010 during the Obama term when the country was in great stress, and as in war, the birth rate rises.  It is back on track now and expected to continue a decline and with some intelligent direction we can reach an equilibrium point, which will almost certainly require we kill all Ph.D. Nostrodomics.

 

Adrian Vance

Adrian Vance is a writer and producer of educational films, filmstrips and audio programs with over 325 productions from script to screen. See a partial list of my credits at http://worldcat.org . And, have written for ten national magazines, been on the masthead of two as an Editor, done a dozen books and am an FCC licensed broadcaster with ten years of on-air experience in radio and television. See my blog, "The Two Minute Conservative" at http://adrianvance.blogspot.com where you will find over 3200 daily pieces, enough material to produce 25 novel length books.

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