A Wall Street writer asks: Can we trust polls this far out when this election has defied so many of our expectations?
We tend to trust polls when we like the outcome and disregard them when we don’t. So most Trump supporters are absolutely sure that he can beat Hillary Clinton in a national race when polls often show the opposite.
The fact is that anything could happen, including a great deal of soul-searching in the #nevertrump movement about whether they really want Hillary Clinton to be president.
People constantly predicted that Donald Trump would implode, but he never did. People likewise act like Hillary Clinton is a stellar candidate who would never implode. But if they were wrong with Donald Trump they can be wrong regarding Clinton, too.
In the Wall Street Journal, William McGurn argues that it is possible that Trump would beat Hillary. He is no Trump supporter but he points out that there is really no definitive reason why he couldn’t win.
Does Trump have “high negatives”? Well, so does Hillary.
Is Hillary Clinton so much smarter? Even if true, that doesn’t mean the voters will care. “In 2004 John Kerry demolished George W. Bush in the first debate, and the next two were generally given to him on points. But he still lost the election.”
Is Hillary Clinton “formidable” as a candidate? Then why is Bernie Sanders still in the race and scoring significant victories?
In the long stretch between now and Election Day, many events could affect the outcome. More terror attacks à la Brussels or San Bernardino. More setbacks in Iraq or Syria. More belligerence from Vladimir Putin in Ukraine. And of course maybe even a Hillary indictment. Does anyone think any of this will help Mrs. Clinton?
Sure, it’s possible the GOP front-runner will implode, just as it’s possible all those polls showing Mrs. Clinton with a double-digit lead over Mr. Trump will indeed come to pass. But some of us who never thought he would get this far are a little more reluctant to be so categorical about an election that is still seven months away.
Ultimately, who should be the nominee should be determined by primary voters deciding who they want as President. Jeb Bush’s people boasted that they didn’t care about winning the primary but the general election. Where is Jeb Bush now?