Latest Polls Inaccurate, Primary Model Shows Certainty of Trump Winning Election is 87 Percent

According to the Primary Model, which has projected 5 out of 5 correct forecasts of election outcomes the Certainty of Donald Trump Becoming America’s next president is 52. percent. The Primary Model also predicts the November election to favor the Republican Party.

Helmut Norpoth writes for the that the likelihood of Trump winning is 87 percent based on a “statistical model that relies on presidential primaries [going back to 1912] and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.”

How a candidate fares in the early primaries is key to determining electoral victory for that election. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, but Clinton and Sanders split the Democratic primaries in the same states.

If paired with Hillary Clinton, the Republican primary winner, Donald Trump, “is predicted to defeat Hillary Clinton by 52.5% to 47.5% of the two-party vote.” If paired with Sanders, Trump would win by 57.7% to 42.3%. states:

For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL, with slight modifications, has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996.  In recent elections the forecast has been issued as early as January of the election year.

As a rule, the candidate with the stronger primary performance wins against the candidate with the weaker primary performance.  For elections from 1912 to 2012 the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner, albeit retroactively, every time except in 1960.

The model also determined that if Trump was not the candidate, the other likely nominees Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio would both lose to Hillary Clinton.

The certainty of Hillary Clinton defeating Rubio is 86 percent. Clinton would get 52.4% and Rubio 47.6% of the two party vote. The PrimaryModel indicates that Cruz “and any other candidate (except Trump) would fare the same way against Clinton.”


Bethany Blankley

Bethany Blankley is a political analyst for Fox News Radio and has appeared on television and radio programs nationwide. She writes about political, cultural, and religious issues in America from the perspective of an evangelical and former communications staffer. She was a communications strategist for four U.S. Senators, one U.S. Congressman, a former New York governor, and several non-profits. She earned her MA in Theology from The University of Edinburgh, Scotland and her BA in Political Science from the University of Maryland. Follow her @bethanyblankley &

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