The most recent Fox News poll shows Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump beating Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton with a three-point lead. Hillary is still fighting against a “loser narrative.”
If the presidential election were held today, according to a Fox News Poll, Trump would beat Clinton by three points, which is also the margin of error. This is a nearly a ten-point drop for Clinton and a seven point increase for Trump, compared to their numbers 60 days ago.
Surprisingly, Clinton still leads Trump among women (50-36 percent), despite her concerted efforts against them.
Trump leads Clinton among men (55-33 percent) and working-class whites (without a college degree) (61-24 percent).
Compared to four years ago, Clinton’s numbers are dropping while Obama’s held steady. Obama had an 89 percent favorability rating among Democrats, whereas Clinton’s is 74 percent.
Chris Stirewalt of Fox News writes:
Team Clinton is betting on the fact that the prospect of a Trump presidency will be enough to unite Democrats and retake the lead. And surely, the remaining 25 weeks until the election will give Democrats a good chance to get together.
But while Trump taking the lead in the early going may chasten some Democrats, she lost in 2008, she has continued to struggle with a long-shot challenger in primaries and now is suddenly trailing Trump.
Voter psychology can be hard to decipher, but we do know that there is a general distaste for supporting losing candidates and a preference for being on the winning team. Trump proved that in the primary contests.
Part of the reason for this is that more Independents are likely to vote for Trump (46-30 percent). And 11 percent of Sanders voters say they would vote for Trump over Clinton.
Time will tell. The next slate of voting is scheduled for June 7, 2016. Hillary is expected to win California and New Jersey but may still have trouble uniting the Democratic Party by the time of the Democratic National Convention.