2016-06-05 (1)

What If Hispanics Vote for Donald Trump?

While the media has assured us that there is no way that Hispanics will vote for Donald Trump, some are finally acknowledging another possibility.

We know some Hispanics will vote for Donald Trump because they say so proudly. They want to make America great again and think Trump will do that.

But the incessant message from the media is that the majority of Hispanics will vote against Trump. The ones supporting Trump on YouTube and at rallies represent only a very few Latino American voters.

But Politico.com has finally acknowledged that there is controversy over how Hispanics will vote.

The divergence in opinion over the presumptive Republican presidential nominee’s standing with Hispanic voters is a growing point of contention — nowhere more so than in the polling world.

While SurveyMonkey has Trump exceeding Romney’s 2012 performance among Hispanics, other polls conducted over the past few weeks show Trump a bit lower. In four other surveys conducted since mid-May — three live-interview telephone surveys and one internet poll — Trump ranged between 18 percent and 23 percent among Hispanics.

Most experts caution that national public polls aren’t great barometers of the Hispanic vote.

The article goes on to list factors such as the few number of people surveyed, the relative few who are likely to vote, and the language barrier.

So it’s no surprise that Trump’s standing in polls among Latinos at this stage of the campaign is in dispute. An online survey last month conducted by SurveyMonkey, commissioned by NBC News, showed Trump capturing 28 percent of the Hispanic vote — one point better than Romney’s 2012 share. And this week’s NBC News/SurveyMonkey data has Trump reaching a new high among Hispanics: 32 percent.

While the percentages may not be accurate, notice that the trend line is positive. As people get to know Donald Trump he is becoming more popular with Hispanics, not less. There is no reason to expect the same poll to be inaccurate in opposite ways—exaggerating Trump’s popularity and then understating it. So we can be pretty confident that Donald Trump is winning some over.

Furthermore, what are the chances that Hispanics will be enthusiastic for Hillary? It is one thing to tell a pollster you prefer her. It is another thing to show up and vote. Among Hispanics who vote, more may be Trump voters.

Why would Trump’s popularity be growing among Hispanics? One reason may be the footage of anti-Trump protestors waving the Mexican flag. I’m sure a growing number of Latino Americans want to repudiate that in every way possible.

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Joe Scudder

Joe Scudder is the "nom de plume" (or "nom de guerre") of a fifty-ish-year-old writer and stroke survivor. He lives in St Louis with his wife and still-at-home children. He has been a freelance writer and occasional political activist since the early nineties. He describes his politics as Tolkienesque.

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