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Hillary Clinton’s Statistically Improbable Coin Tosses

The Iowa caucus bylaws state that when a vote is too close to count and/or there is a tie, the vote can be determined by a coin toss. In the case of Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Bernard Sanders  a coin toss was used for at least six precincts.

And Clinton won all 6 coin tosses. The probability that anyone could win consecutively six coin tosses is only 1.6 percent. Journalist Ben Norton calculates: “(1/2)^6, which is 1/64 — or 1.6 percent.”

Consider the odds even if Sanders had won half of the coin flips– splitting the six county delegates (3/3) with Clinton, Sanders would have beaten Clinton, winning 698.49 delegates to Clinton’s 696.57.

According to associate professor of sociology at Iowa State University, David Schweingruber, (who told The Des Moines Register) explained that by just doing simple math, roughly 60 delegates are missing from the total. For example, in Ames, 484 eligible caucus attendees were initially recorded. Yet after each group was counted, Clinton had 240 supporters, Sanders had 179, and Martin O’Malley had five. These numbers total 424, not 484.

Sanders called for a raw vote instead of a county delegate vote.

How did Clinton win six coin tosses in a row when the likelihood of winning each time is slightly above one percent?

It truly is hard to believe.

 

 

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Bethany Blankley

Bethany Blankley is a political analyst for Fox News Radio and has appeared on television and radio programs nationwide. She writes about political, cultural, and religious issues in America from the perspective of an evangelical and former communications staffer. She was a communications strategist for four U.S. Senators, one U.S. Congressman, a former New York governor, and several non-profits. She earned her MA in Theology from The University of Edinburgh, Scotland and her BA in Political Science from the University of Maryland. Follow her @bethanyblankley facebook.com/BlankleyBethany/ & BethanyBlankley.com.

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