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Hillary Clinton — What Are the Odds?

There are a lot of weird things about Hillary Clinton’s winning the Democratic caucus in Iowa on Monday night.

First and foremost is the fact that she still has enough supporters to pull a win out of thin air — or any supporters at all.

But then, Democrats never seemed overly troubled by things like national security breaches, Benghazi or any of a dozen scandals, especially where the Clintons are concerned.

Having a candidate who by rights should have been indicted long ago is pretty much par for the course.

The second bit of weirdness is that among the Democrats who do realize there’s a problem with a Clinton candidacy, almost all of them think that Bernard “Bernie” Sanders is the viable alternative over Martin O’Malley, who has now suspended his campaign.

It’s not really surprising at all that there should be missing votes or uncounted precincts in any election involving Democrats.

No, the weirdest thing about Clinton’s win in Iowa on Monday was that it literally was decided by a coin toss. Actually, not just one but six consecutive coin tosses.

In at least six precincts that are known, the delegates were undecided. In the Democratic caucus that means to whom the delegate would be assigned gets determined randomly by coin toss.

Each coin toss has a fifty-fifty chance of being either heads or tails. Six in a row, on the other hand, that’s rapidly approaching unbelievability.

It’s possible, of course, but only a 1 in 64 chance, which is about a 1.5 percent likelihood.

Like all things Clinton, it skates right up to the edge of incredulity, not unlike depending on what the definition of ‘is’ is.

If Sanders had won even half of those six coin tosses, as was statistically likely, the headlines today would be trumpeting a Sanders victory.

The reality is that Iowa for the Democrats was too close to call without an accurate recount. But by now, the pro-Clinton media have kicked in to crown their candidate.

So it’s off to New Hampshire next week, where Sanders is polling as high as twice the support for Clinton.

A Sanders victory seems like a shoe-in. Just watch out for the Clinton camp’s magic coin.

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Tad Cronn

Tad Cronn began his journalism career in 1983. While he earned awards for his work as a reporter and editor, his greatest joy is writing news commentary. Providing a conservative and often humorous outlook on current events, he now works as a freelance writer based in California.

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