Right off the bat, you have to consider the source. It’s an economist with international financial giant Goldman Sachs – who as we know has the back of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
On the campaign trail, an unsuspecting voter might have gotten the impression that Hillary Clinton wants to bring Wall Street to its knees. But in private – and at exclusive speeches she gave before Wall Street bankers and financial giants like Goldman Sachs – she’s their best friend. Wall Street giants don’t want a volatile, unpredictable person like Donald Trump in the White House. They want a seasoned, predictable, and dirty politician like Hillary Clinton.
So, it comes as no surprise that Goldman Sachs is not expecting any surprises on November 8. Or at least, that’s what they’re saying. And hoping.
Some people have compared Donald Trump’s rise to prominence to the Brexit movement that eventually led to the UK voting to leave the European Union in a surprising upset that differed from opinion polls which showed a majority of people wanted to stay in the EU.
But Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips says there’s no comparison, and Hillary is going to win:
“We think the situation is different for two reasons. First, and most importantly, while both situations represented an opportunity for voters to endorse a change in the status quo, voters in the U.K. were asked to decide on an idea whereas in the U.S. they are being asked to decide on a person. Second, the polls are simply not as close in the current presidential contest as they were ahead of the U.K. referendum.”
Jeff Cox with CNBC writes in response that the current race isn’t as far apart as Phillips is saying it is:
“However, the Real Clear Politics average of all major polls gives Clinton just a 4.4-point edge, and the Los Angeles Times’ tracker even sees Trump with a 1-point lead.
“By comparison, the final London Telegraph poll heading into the June 23 vote had the ‘remain’ vote with a comfortable 4-point lead. Betting odds in the U.K. had given ‘remain’ an 88 percent chance of prevailing, against the ‘leave’ victory of 4 points.”
Cox concludes by reminding readers that “Wall Street is heavily invested in a Clinton victory.”
“Securities and investment firms have poured nearly $65 million into her campaign coffers, according to the Center for Responsive Politics,” Cox writes. “Goldman Sachs employees have donated $284,816 to Clinton and just $3,641 to Trump, who has received $716,407 from Wall Street.”