The Unstoppable Donald Trump

Do We Really Know if Trump is the Front-Runner?

The media is telling us that Donald Trump is the front-runner; but where is he polling that high, and when was the poll taken?

So in how many of the Super Tuesday states do we know that Donald Trump is the front-runner in the Republican primary?

None of them.

Our best evidence that Donald Trump is the front-runner comes from Alabama and Massachusetts. But it isn’t much.

As Byron York wrote in the Washington Examiner, we simply don’t have enough up-to-date polling data to say who is the front-runner.

The polling from many of those states is scant, out of date, or nonexistent, making it impossible to say with any certainty who is leading.

The Super Tuesday states are Texas, Georgia, Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vermont, Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Alaska. In only two of them, Alabama and Massachusetts, do we have even one poll done even partially after last Thursday’s debate. And in some states, the polling is much, much older.

One poll isn’t much, but it is more than any of the other states.

We can’t even say with certainty that Trump is not the front-runner in Texas. Yes, polling shows Ted Cruz with a seven-point lead in the Lone Star state, but all of the polls were completed before the debate. We can speculate that Trump performed badly at the debate so Cruz remains the front-runner, but we don’t know. Besides, some thought Marco Rubio did really well against Trump. If Rubio swung some of Cruz’s support in Texas over to him, that might mean that his attacks on Trump made Trump the front-runner there, ironically. After all, a seven-point lead from last week isn’t much, especially when it is not a two-man race.

My guess is that Ted Cruz remains ahead of Trump in Texas, but that is my point: it is only a guess.

Guesses are all we really have to go on.

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Joe Scudder

Joe Scudder is the "nom de plume" (or "nom de guerre") of a fifty-ish-year-old writer and stroke survivor. He lives in St Louis with his wife and still-at-home children. He has been a freelance writer and occasional political activist since the early nineties. He describes his politics as Tolkienesque.

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