President Trump will bring a new era in politics: The perspective and skills of a businessman who sees issues in economics terms. What if Donald Trump had been Abraham Lincoln? How would he have handled the freeing of the slaves? Would he go to war, as did Mr. Lincoln? We think not.
We can rightly assume an 1860’s Donald Trump would be every bit as opposed to slavery and eager as Mr. Lincoln to put an end to it. He would know, as did many, the cotton gin, and other new technologies were making slavery uneconomic. The real key to “king cotton” was all the little fingers of black children pulling cotton linters from seeds to free fibers. Each bale came at the price of thousands of hours of child labor and no education. It was unconscionable.
President Trump would call a meeting of slave state Governors, broach the issue and listen. His meeting with the Republican leaders who dislike him demonstrated the first step in the Trump method is listening. He collects information that he will analyze to craft solutions with high chances of success.
Just before the Civil War we had four million slaves, each valued at $800 for a $3.2 billion total. In a second meeting Mr. Trump would make an impassioned speech that it is wrong for one man to own another and that it is clear black folks are people, not another species, as they can interbreed with other humans. “They are people!”
Mr. Trump would argue that point ad infinitum, but he would get there not just because he is good at it, but it is true and we assume the Governors were intelligent men of good faith: The kind that “Get there” and Mr. Trump is a “bulldog.” Once he has his teeth in something he does not let go.
Mr. Trump would propose we float a 30 year bond issue at three percent, “With the full faith and credit of the United States,” in return for every slave and a contract sale of “Forty acres and a mule” for each family so they could work their own land and establish a truly free market for cotton, sugar cane, jute, or whatever the best crop was for the area.
The slave owners would receive $800 for each of their adult slaves and 40 acres per family, at existing valuation on a 30 year contract, with the people free to sell their crops to the highest bidder; a true free market solution! This would immediately put $3.2 billion of new capital into the southern states economy, most of which would improve existing enterprise, with a fraction going to new enterprise as America is always rich with ideas. It is the lack of capital that kills the majority of new ideas.
The value of men and material wasted in the Civil War is astounding as it was our most devastating war in all terms. The Union Army costs in 1860 Dollars was $6.2 billion and the Confederate Army $2.1 billion for a total of $8.3 billion 1860 Dollars.
Estimating what that would be in 2016 money is difficult as the value has changed in both directions, but we can approximate it as our economy was wobbly, but doubled from 1860 to 1913. In 1913 Woodrow Wilson created the Federal Reserve and the destruction of the Dollar began such that the value has fallen to 1/56th of what it had been by 2016. Therefore: What we could buy for one Dollar in 1860 takes $112 today.
Using 112 as the factor the Civil War cost $929 billion 2016 Dollars and freeing the slaves would cost $358 billion 2016 Dollars which is a very large amount of money, but 38% of what it would cost to fight the war and this does include the wounded, widows, property and social values.
Furthermore, we think the capitalization of the south, in a way and to a level that had not been done would have increased the economy in a healthy way. The world was, as it is today, eager for our goods. We are only 4.5% of the world’s population, but we lead in every field! We are, as H.G. Wells said in his 1899 trip to America, “The engineers of the world!”
Imagine our world if our “people of color” had been allowed to grow with us for the last 156 years? We would have the America we all want and not the grimy, greedy, groveling mess of today. With billions of Dollars in the South mid-19th century it is hard to imagine the advances that could have been made in seven or eight generations between there and here.
Only one of every 1,300 US patents makes more money than its fees due to the lack of capital for development. It is not widely known, but the favorite activity of billionaires is funding new ventures. These are men and women that are fascinated with ideas and bringing them to life. The great untold, or at least undertold, story of America is how great ideas happened and how critical venture capital has been. The $3.2 billion we would have had to spend to compensate the southern slave owners for their legally acquired property of that time is a tiny fraction of what we have paid for solving the problem by war. It is still going on today in our Fergusons, Baltimores, with more to come. It all could have ended in a deal by with a President Trump.
If we accept time is a dimension then it should be navigable and some day we may do it. It may have happened with UFO’s. The “time traveler” hypothesis has more believability than the space travel concept for UFOs given the distances to stars, the speed of light limit and the dirty, radiation filled nature of space the speed of light it bears. Too many people and too many photographs were taken before the digital processes making it possible to fake them. Before digital imaging, with film technology, pictures could be authenticated. Now they cannot. Anything can be faked now. We live a fake time!
President Trump is here and now. He could well have an impact much more profound than this outline as we are at a critical time. We have long been duped by a movement that came forth from the ashes of the Civil War when former slave owners devised a way to insure power by repression of “the Negro.” With the cover of the Democratic Party, the auxiliary Ku Klux Klan could ply evil. The spiritual remains we deal with today in the Clinton candidacy is real and so we ask, “Could President Trump prevent the Civil War?”